John McCain thinks he's going to pull off the upset. He plans to do it by winning Pennsylvania and its 21 electoral votes. This would maybe not be the dumbest strategy in the world if he were polling, oh, I don't know... within 10% of Barack Obama in the state. I mean - it's very true some polls are sometimes wrong. The common belief is that polls just aren't accurate, and perhaps this is a fair assessment when you are the kind of person that picks out a key poll and expects it to be exactly the same as the outcome. But ALL POLLS are not consistently far from the outcome. Example: Obama is polling about 33% in Utah. It would be completely moronic for me to expect him to magically pull off a close 49% in the end. No, he's been polling at about 33% and maybe he'll do amazing well there and somehow hit 36%, maybe he'll only be at 30%... But we know he's not going to rebound more than 10 points and somehow make the state competitive. Obama leads McCain 52%-41% in a combination of the top 8 recent major polls.
Indeed, maybe it would be absurd to assume Pennsylvania is going to be the Obama blowout predicted by the most recent set of polls - but with the exception of a couple mid-September polls that showed a dead heat, every poll for months has shown Obama with a significant lead. This is not some recent development, Obama has been winning for months.
So John McCain thinks he can do this.
Can I just say... WHY IS HE DOING THIS?! He's throwing all his resources in this one place... Where could there be a flaw in this? How about Nevada? Let's assume John McCain's fantasy of taking PA does happen by some act of the devil... The map could still look like this:
Obama 270, McCain 268. Obama still wins.
John McCain is already making a lot of assumptions to even bring about the remote possibility of a victory.
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