Why a tie might not happen in 2008.

Since 1996, Nebraska uses the "Congressional District Method" of distributing their electoral votes for Presidential elections (Maine has also used this method since the 70's). This means that if a candidate receives a bigger share of the vote in one of the districts in either state, the states' electoral votes for the President could literally be split. NOBODY seems to be picking up on the likely scenario of this happening in Nebraska in 2008. A couple days ago, Tim Russert mentioned the potential for a 269-269 electoral tie this November. What he didn't say is that, should Obama receive the nomination, there might not actually be a tie at all in his scenario, but rather a 270-268 Obama victory over McCain.

Nebraska's second congressional district is drawn closely around Omaha. Kerry lost the Douglass county area 59-40% in 2004, Gore lost it about 55-40%. Interestingly, in 2000, Nader picked up almost 5% himself. I don't mean to speak for all Greens, but Green Party voters tend to be younger (college-aged), activist, and very liberal. Many of this demographic have shifted to Obama support this year. Also, popular Republican Representative Lee Terry faced off with Democrat Jim Esch in Nebraska-2 in 2006. Again, it was 55-45% (including the votes from Sarpy county). Combining the votes on the left, the Omaha area seems to be about 55% Republican to 45% Democrat based on PAST turnout.

NOW keep in mind the strong criticism of Bush coming from Republican Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel in this past year. McCain essentially plans to continue Bush's fiscal policies and foreign relations. This could drive some moderate Republicans out of the ranks temporarily, and I think everyone has seen this with the rise of "Obamacans." Certainly, this is going to be the case even in Nebraska.

More importantly, Obama is the clear winner in the Nebraska caucuses. Relatively speaking, he's immensely popular there for an out-of-state Democrat. A quick jog over to electoral-vote.com is showing Obama polling wildly better (in the entire state of Nebraska) than any of the Democratic candidates have in previous elections. Currently, they have him at 42% to McCain's 45% statewide. With rural Nebraska being staunchly conservative, it's obvious that a lot of Obama's support is coming from places like Omaha and Lincoln. While Lincoln is situated in a relatively big congressional district incorporating lots of rural areas, Omaha is basically on its own.

To make a long story short: Barring the unlikely event of a massive change in voter sentiment, it certainly looks like Obama will win NE-2 this fall, thus splitting the vote in Nebraska, and handing Obama one extra electoral vote.

Here is Russert's "tie" possibility:



Here is how his scenario would actually play out:


I know people might be inclined to argue that Hillary Clinton still has a good shot at the nomination, thus making my analysis pointless. My response would be that, despite her upcoming victories in Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia, Obama has his own victories coming in North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota, and probably Indiana. He's up by about 150 elected delegates, and there is no way she's going to catch up to him. If this nationwide nomination election were a state election - media would have already called the election for Obama. There is simply no realistic way she's going to top him in the popular vote. She'll finish either a close or slightly distant second place in this race, depending on the remaining states. That's why you've heard party leaders call for her to drop out. It isn't that anyone is trying to marginalize the remaining votes, it's that she's staying in the race on the hopes that the party is going to snub the voters and end up picking her even though voters didn't pick her.

Also, with so much attention to superdelegates right now, there is NO WAY they are going to vote for the candidate who comes up second in the popular vote. It would be immensely controversial, it would push a lot of voters away from the polls in November, and it would be a horrible decision for a Democratic Party that is trying to build public trust.

It's official today - Michigan is not having a re-vote. Obama and Edwards removed their names from the ballot there to cooperate with the Party rules, Hillary left hers on and obviously ended up taking the cake. Outside of die-hard Clinton supporters, nobody views that election as legitimate. They'll seat the delegations alright, but certainly not according to how that vote went.

Florida on the other hand, is perhaps somewhat legitimate. I think a lot of Obama supporters would cry foul at that delegation being seated as-is also, considering that most of the Obama supporters (who tend to have higher education levels) there didn't come out to the polls, realizing that the election was not going to count. Even IF the commission decides to go by the Florida vote as it was, it wouldn't actually give Clinton any kind of victory. Based on what happened with the Edwards support in Iowa, I would also suppose that most of the votes that went toward Richardson and Edwards would be thrown to Obama - resulting in a roughly 50-50 split of Florida votes.

SO, even factoring in Florida and Michigan, Hillary Clinton can't pick up enough pledged delegates to retake first place by the convention.

To answer the "big question," the November election will be between Barack Obama and John McCain. Using polls from electoral-vote.com, CNN, and MSNBC, as well as years of studying Political Science at the University of Illinois, this is what I currently expect the 2008 results to look like:


Obama 279, McCain 259