This Raises the Judgement Issue

Some interesting points about Sarah Palin, VP candidate

-No Federal Government experience AT ALL; less than 2 years as Alaskan Governor
-Currently under investigation for a firing scandal
-Recently asked "what is it exactly a Vice President does everyday?"
-Member of controversial Alaska Independence Party
-Claims she "hasn't followed Iraq war."
-Hasn't left North America other than a brief (staged) visit to troops in Kuwait and Germany.... but her team points out that Alaska is close to Russia, so she would probably be very good with Foreign Affairs...

Republican argument:

-She has years of experience in government (counting her years as mayor of a small town)
-She may have less experience than Obama, but that's not important because she isn't at the top of the ticket


Reality Check:

-Does not help McCain on the electoral map.
-Weakens the "National Security" argument that the Republicans are running on
-Looks like a ploy to win over Hillary supporters who have not warmed up to Obama.
-Despite media suggestions, staunch Hillary supporters are unlikely to vote for a ticket with extremist conservative elements such as McCain's opposition to equal pay legislation for women and both of the Republicans being staunchly anti-abortion.

Conclusion:

John McCain would have alienated the conservative base with Lieberman, Huckabee would have threatened McCain's margins with the "independents leaning Republican" who incorrectly perceive him as a maverick. Pawlenty isn't even popular enough in Minnesota to help McCain there, let alone the rest of the country.

Romney would have been a solid choice for unifying the Republican Party, but he wouldn't have given McCain any gains anywhere else where he needs them. He needs to win all Republicans + a little more this time. That's just the way the electorate is right now.

McCain needed someone with a lot of experience with the economy to reassure voters - he needed someone less partisan to reach out to Democrats, but conservative enough to hang on to Republicans, he needed someone with a clean history to counteract his years of questionable involvement with lobbyists and the Keating Five Scandal. To be honest, he probably needed someone popular in a swing state.

Palin was a bad choice. It shows a lack of sound judgment. It shows that the people he chose to investigate VPs weren't doing their jobs (already poor judgment by picking them for the task), and it demonstrates that McCain wasn't able to realize the consequences of choosing her.

Now McCain and his people are saying that they already knew about how Palin's husband had a DWI, how her daughter is pregnant, how she was involved in a firing scandal, how she took money from lobbyists, how she has a questionable past with the Alaska Independence Party.

The question is: WHY didn't they reveal that from the beginning then? They waited for the press to dig up the story, and now they just write off that voters are concerned about it because they "already knew" before selecting her. It shatters the notion that voters could trust a McCain administration. They've begun acting like George Bush's posse- playing right into Obama's message that McCain is just like Bush.

Voters will go to the polls on November 4. I guess we'll see how this plays out. It looks like McCain is down by more than 5% in national polls, and Obama is holding onto Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada right now according to those state polls.

My speculative previous post was based upon early polls out of Nebraska, but subsequent polls have changed my prediction. I no longer think that Obama has enough support in Eastern Nebraska to pull off an extra electoral vote. I will have to gain access to more polls, but currently it looks like

The late Tim Russert could be right after all. I still believe Obama will hold Colorado - defeating the tie possibility. He's been ahead there for some time now, the Democratic Convention was there, and he's got a really strong campaign effort in those Western states. Though the recent polls have been close, it looks like he could keep it.

Tim Russert was a genius. Should Colorado stay red, but Nevada flip blue... 269-269. Of course, all of this assumes Virginia will stay Republican- which may not be the case. Surprising perhaps all major media talking heads, Obama and McCain have continued to be locked in a tie in Virginia, and I've watched it flip slightly one way or another throughout the campaign.

For those who don't follow this stuff as closely - let me give you a quick calculation:

For those who would argue with my logic, I would say "get realistic." Republicans are not seen as good for the economy, and Democrats continue to keep large leads in the polls in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Those states are not switching. Obama has been far ahead in Iowa, Minnesota, and New Mexico for most of the election season. People try to throw those states in as swing states a lot, but it's kind of absurd because it doesn't match the trends. It just makes the election look more exciting on paper and makes everybody feel included. I think this is beneficial for turnout though, so I'm not opposed to media misrepresentation in this matter.

That said, the Democrats are sitting on 264 Electoral votes (260 if you consider New Hampshire to be a swing state), the Republicans are sitting on about 200 (197 if you consider Montana a swing state this time).

So, if there is a tie 269-269, the election goes to the House of Representatives, essentially guaranteeing the Democrats a victory since they have and are expected to keep a majority in the House. Here are the indisputable swing states this time around with their electoral votes:

Virginia (13)
Colorado (9)
Nevada (5)
Ohio (20)
Florida (27)

Realistically, Florida has too many ignorant old people, broken voting machines, and disenfranchised voters to actually go Democratic. So count it out.

Virginia (13)
Colorado (9)
Nevada (5)
Ohio (20)

Obama only has to win ONE of these states. McCain has to win ALL of them.

That's the gist of it right now. So just like Tim Russert said "Ohio. Ohio. Ohio." in 2004 -- and that became the deciding factor... I'm saying "Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio." Mostly because a) I'm not as cool as Tim Russert was. And, b) this is different - Kerry NEEDED Ohio. Obama has 4 swings this time and he only needs to connect once. Also, unlike Kerry, he's already ahead or at least tied going into these states. Kerry was slightly behind in Ohio but was hanging on to that losing-but-still-statistically-tied category in the polls.

So, if I had to guess, I'd say Obama is likely to get ONE of those states. If all of those fail, there's always the off-chance that Montana and North Dakota would flip, but unlike hyper-optimistic liberals, I really don't think that's gonna happen.